ANÁLISE DINÂMICA DO DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL DAS NAÇÕES: APLICAÇÃO DA PMG-ARDL NO MODELO 5SENSU PARA PAÍSES POBRES E RICOS

Resumo (EN)

Environmental resources play an essential and critical role in the economic development of countries, and the debate in the literature continues regarding the belief that resource-rich countries tend to experience better economic growth. In this context, reference is made to what is termed the resource curse paradox, which is based on the observation that countries rich in natural resources tend to grow more slowly than non-resource-rich countries. The objective of this thesis was to evaluate the Dynamics of Sustainable Development of Nations, using the PMG-ARDL approach within the 5SEnSU Model as an assessment framework for the world's poorest and richest country groups, respectively. The PMG-ARDL model was applied within the theoretical framework of the endogenous Green Solow Model developed by Brock and Taylor (2010) to capture the complexities of sustainable development in the studied countries. The 5SEnSU model facilitated a comprehensive understanding of growth and development by integrating environmental, economic, and social dimensions. This study considered the eight (8) poorest countries, designated as G8p (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone), in comparison with the eight (8) wealthiest countries, designated as G8r (Germany, Canada, United States of America, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Russia), over the period 1990-2020. An additional evaluation was conducted using the ARDL bounds testing approach for individual country analysis within each group. Both approaches simulated the dynamics of long- and short-term relationships among environmental, economic, and social variables across five sectors (each with provider and recipient functions) of the 5SEnSU Model, which represents a hypothetical economy. Granger causality tests provided the direction of impulse (unidirectional or bidirectional causality) of development from one sector to another. Results presented in scenarios addressing research questions indicated that, for the poorest countries, acute challenges exist, particularly due to unsustainable natural resource exploitation, such as deforestation, leading to negative impacts on social development. The 'resource curse' phenomenon is evident, with domestic material extraction impairing employment (-1.275%) and remuneration (-0.356%) over the long term, while environmental degradation exacerbates living conditions. Nonetheless, the study also demonstrates that forest conservation and the sustainable use of natural resources contribute positively to household consumption (+1.612%) and employment rates (+0.440%). Thus, the ideal scenario for poorer countries includes implementing policies that promote environmental conservation and economic diversification, reducing excessive reliance on natural resources and improving social indicators such as health, education, and employment. In the scenario for wealthier countries, their situation is more favorable, although unsustainable resource exploitation remains an issue. The study reveals that, even with greater financial and technological capabilities, high CO2 emissions negatively impact the Human Development Index (HDI) (-0.145%) and long-term development. For these countries, transitioning to a low-carbon economy and adopting advanced technologies are crucial to mitigate these effects. Per capita GDP shows a positive impact on employment (+1.075%) and household consumption (+1.392%), suggesting that wealthy countries should continue investing in technological innovation and emission reduction, thereby ensuring sustainable development that balances economic growth with environmental preservation. The causality test indicated that, in poorer countries, there is bi-causality between forest area and CO2, where deforestation increases emissions and vice versa. Forest area also causes household consumption, employment, and HDI, with more direct impacts in poorer countries. In wealthier countries, conservation practices Granger-cause consumption. In both groups, household consumption impacts biocapacity and CO2 emissions, but with more pronounced effects in wealthier countries due to higher per capita consumption. The study recommends that while poorer countries need to strengthen environmental governance and diversify their economies to ensure sustainable development, wealthier countries should focus on reducing CO2 emissions and efficiently utilizing their resources to mitigate negative impacts on the social sector.