Under Pressure: Climate Variability and Economic Impacts on Swine Production in Brazil

Resumo (EN)

Climate change poses increasing challenges to livestock production in tropical regions, where rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and feed cost fluctuations affect roductivity and economic stability. However, few studies have jointly quantified the effects of climatic and economic variables on swine production in tropical production systems, particularly in Brazil. This study examined the effects of maximum temperature, precipitation, and feed price on swine production density in Brazil’s main producing states. The analysis included Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul as the principal empirical base, while Mato Grosso was retained because of its strategic relevance but contributed only limited observations and was therefore interpreted more cautiously. Using monthly observations and a multiple linear regression model with heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC, Newey–West) standard errors, we found that higher maximum mean temperatures were associated with lower production density: a 1 ◦C increase corresponded to an estimated decline of 1.34 × 106 kg/km2. Precipitation showed a positive association, with each additional millimeter corresponding to an increase of approximately 1.82 × 105 kg/km2, whereas a 0.173 USD/kg increase in feed price was associated with a reduction of about 6.2 × 106 kg/km2. Although the model explained only a modest share of monthly variation (R2 = 0.162), the results suggest that climatic exposure and feed-cost pressure are relevant components of swine production dynamics in Brazil and should be considered in future climate-risk and agricultural planning.