2025 – Pakistan road towards Paris Agreement: Potential decarbonization pathways and future emissions reduction by A developing country

Resumo (EN)

Pakistan is a signatory of the Paris Agreement and is ranked among the top 10 most highly vulnerable countries towards climate change. Being the 5th most populous country in the world, with ambitious economic growth goals, a countrywide emissions assessment of the GHGs following various economic scenarios and planning objectives is crucial; especially using dynamically integrated, technologically rich, bottom-up, and robust models. Hence, we used LEAP (low emissions analysis platform) for setting up long-term decarbonization and
energy transitioning pathways following global commitments (e.g. Paris Agreement) thereby contributing to­wards climate change mitigation and adapting net-zero policies in the country. These pathways are based on various scenarios and sub-scenarios e.g. Business as Usual (BAU), the National Decarbonization (NDS), and NetZero Emissions Scenario (NZES) spanning over a time-window of 2020–2050. Extensive technological reforms and changes in energy fuel mixes across residential, transportation, agriculture, industrial, and power production sectors have been anticipated. The result shows that, following NDS-based policies, 26 % GHG emissions reduction i.e. 170 MtCO2eq is possible in the short-run (2030) followed by 67 % (773 MtCO2eq) reduction in the mid-term (2040) and a remarkable 90 % (1756 MtCO2eq) reduction in the long run (2050). On the other hand, fuel-switching and substitution, an adaption of maximum renewable energy resources and hydrogen fuel in the national fuel mix followed by the proposed installations of carbon-capture and storage technologies have led to the achievement of net-zero-emissions in the NZES scenario. However, considering Pakistan’s technological
capabilities and economic conditions, developing a low-carbon society by achieving net-zero emissions until 2050 seems a highly ambitious plan. Nevertheless, international financial and technological support can play a vital role in helping countries like Pakistan enhance their capacity to achieve long-term decarbonization and climate resilience goals. This support can bolster Pakistan’s efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy and adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.